CreditAccess Grameen Ltd - Result Update Q3FY21

CreditAccess Grameen’s (CAG) Q3FY21 numbers were below estimates, largely driven by upfronting of provisions and interest income reversals for pro-forma Gross Stage-3 (GS-3) assets. CAG’s disbursement growth returned to pre-Covid levels, which grew 31% YoY/179% YoY. Consolidated Gross Loan Portfolio (GLP) increased 12% YoY/10% QoQ. Consolidated pro-forma Gross Stage-3 (60+ dpd) came in at 6.14%. In Q3FY21, management took a call to upfront all provisions related to the incipient Covid related stress, resulting in an annualized credit cost of ~9%. CAG now carries an ECL of 5.7% on consolidated basis (v/s an expected overall credit loss of 4-4.5% from the Covid related stress). CAG’s management expects an annualized credit cost of ~1% going forward and the company could see writebacks of these provisions if the current recovery trend in collections continue.

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Key Highlights
  • CAG’s management has taken a prudent and conservative call of upfronting Covid related credit costs, which has resulted in a loss in the current quarter. This provides management with a clean slate to start focusing on growth.
  • We believe CAG is best placed to capture the large opportunity in the MFI space. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ recommendation on the stock with the same target price of INR993/share.

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